The Green Ribbon

Labour's Scottish gamble

Politico has an intriguing nugget on Scotland:

And while a serious revival in Scotland appears unlikely — one party official admitted only 15 seats north of the border are competitive for Labour, and that “we won’t win them all” — aides are bullish that Tory warnings about Starmer needing a backroom deal with the SNP to secure a parliamentary majority will not have the same potency in England that they have in the past.

“We have a simple message on that now,” the same Labour official said. “No. Deal. We don’t need one. We know the SNP wouldn’t vote down a Labour government, and so do they.”

This may well be the most expedient calculation for Labour given the past Conservative fear-mongering about a Labour-SNP coalition, and the possibility of winning a majority, either independently or with the Lib Dems.

If the SNP did end up holding the balance of power, however, it could unravel. Labour might instinctively prefer a minority government to coalition but it is the former which gives more room for maneuver to smaller parties. There is reason to think could use that freedom to bring down a Labour government.

For one thing, they have done it before, in 1979, and they might have serious reasons to do it again. If Labour does not expect to do well in Scotland, then the SNP is likely to retain a mandate for a new independence referendum. It will be under pressure from its own activists to use its parliamentary leverage to obtain one. If Labour is not prepared to concede at that point, the kind of day-to-day negotiation by which minority governments survive would become very difficult.

Ferrier decision could set up SNP-Labour battle

Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has today called on one of her own party's MPs to resign from the House of Commons. The SNP withdrew the whip from Rutherglen and Hamilton West MP Margaret Ferrier after it emerged she had taken a train from Glasgow to London while Covid positive.

If Ferrier complies, it could set up an intriguing by-election in a seat which has changed hands three times between Labour and the SNP since 2015. Ferrier gained the seat that year only to lose it to Ged Killen in 2017, before taking it back last December.

The opportunity to run a recent MP like Killen might well give Labour a fighting chance in the seat. It's an unexpected prospect for a once dominant party that has been in relentless decline in Scotland for over a decade, with only the brief respite of seat gains in 2017 that were wiped away within two year.

New UK Labour leader Keir Starmer has had to walk a fine line on Scotland's constitutional future, respecting self-determination while opposing independence. There has been little expectation for a Labour recovery in Scotland, with the party more pre-occupied by infighting over the position of Scottish leader Richard Leonard. 

This is a key obstacle to a Labour majority government. Without strong gains in Scotland, Labour may have to consider an SNP alliance as an alternative route to power.

A by-election in Rutherglen and Hamilton West may be an early test in one of the next election's most intractable battlegrounds.

Johnson's Brexit victory leaves huge uncertainty for Northern Ireland and Scotland

After a massively consequential election on 12 December, the UK is now pretty certain to leave the EU within two months. Yet huge uncertainty remains about the UK's future outside the bloc.

The lack of debate over Brexit during the election leaves Johnson with freedom to go far a hard Brexit or pivot to a closer relationship if he chooses. That choice has significant implications for the future of Northern Ireland.

A hard Brexit will mean a customs border with Great Britain, pushing the North towards a deeper All-Ireland economic relationship. A closer relationship will ameliorate those requirements.

Labour's Scottish dilemma

The Herald is reporting that Jeremy Corbyn will rule out an electoral pact with the SNP during an upcoming visit to Scotland. Compass Chair Neal Lawson has criticised any such move in an article for Labourlist.

My thoughts from the Labourlist comments here:

A serious strategy for taking on the SNP might actually involve moving closer to them. Any strategy for winning in Scotland will have to involve a policy offer to the pro-independence voters who have left Labour for the SNP, and a willingness to work with the SNP at Westminster level if necessary is one way of signalling seriousness in that regard. Another might be accepting that the Scottish Parliament has the right to call an independence referendum.¹

At the moment, Labour has created a cordon sanitaire around the SNP that it doesn't have, for example, around the Liberal Democrats. That sends a signal that unionism trumps all other considerations, which is precisely the approach that has given a huge boost to the SNP and the Tories.

It is very difficult to see the basis of an electoral pact with the SNP, but the cordon sanitaire approach won't stop the Tories scaremongering given the objective possibility of a hung parliament. The only thing that might blunt that attack is a mature dialogue in the years before the election, which should probably be focused in the first instance on the fallout from Brexit, and effective opposition in the current Parliament.

¹One constructive thing Jeremy Corbyn could do is endorse the comment by Conservative Scottish Secretary David Mundell that "if the people of Scotland ultimately determine that they want to have another referendum there will be one". If all sides accept that position in practice, then a hung parliament, electoral pact or coalition at Westminster can make no difference to the timing of another referendum.

Wendy's u-turn

OurKingdom has my thoughts on Wendy Alexander's decison to come out in favour of a Scottish Independence referendum:

Her actions were widely seen as sidelining the Calman Commission, which was largely her creation. However, It now looks as if any referendum is likely to come after the Commission has reported. It’s proposals will be crucial to the unionist case. That is a powerful incentive to offer Scotland as much autonomy as possible, rather than risk losing the union altogether.

Alexander's move prompted some interesting exchanges at Holyrood today.

Reform or retrenchment? Wendy Alexander on the constitution

Scottish Labour leader Wendy Alexander made a bold bid to take back the Scottish constitutional agenda on Sunday with the launch of her policy document, Change is What We Do:

From my latest piece for OurKingdom.

A Lib Dem olive branch to Salmond

A couple of Holyrood notes to catch up with:

• GORDON BROWN is refusing to call the body tasked with reviewing devolution a "commission" because he believes it would give an "incorrect impression about its status".
  
  The prime minister used that phrase at a Downing Street summit on the Union, a full account of which has been leaked to this newspaper.
  
  He also backed a review of Holyrood's financial powers only after he was pushed on the issue by UK justice secretary Jack Straw and Scotland secretary Des Browne. {Sunday Herald)

Kosovo, Europe and Scotland

The FT has an article today that will make unwelcome reading for Scottish nationalists. Nevertheless, even though it comes from the usual suspects at the Constitution Unit, it warrants serious consideration:

The diplomatic fallout over recognition of the newcomer has ominous implications for the separatists in minority government in Edinburgh. Half a dozen European Union states fear the example that is being set for ethnic minorities within their borders. If Scotland ever votes for independence these states could easily make an example of it by blocking Scottish membership of the EU. (Simon James, Financial Times)

Of course, an independent Scotland would be in a fundamentally different position from Kosovo since it would almost certainly be applying in the wake of an agreed secession in line with international legal precedent.

James' point is that Scottish membership of the EU might nevertheless be blocked by governments obstinately determined to make a point. In reality, taking such a stance against an agreed secession, might only strengthen the hand of unilateral seccessionists.

It would in effect impose Spain's reactionary constitution on the European Union, since their would be no democratic way for national communities to pursue their aspirations, even where they are in the majority, and remain in the EU. Such an approach might repress secessionist movements in the short run, but ultimately it would make the union a dangerously rigid structure.

Brown U-turn on fiscal devolution

Today brought yet another twist in the saga of the 'Wendy Commission', the devolution plan put forward by Labour's Holyrood leader in opposition to the Scottish Government's National Conversation.

Backing her plans for a fresh study of devolution, Mr Brown said: "There is an issue about the financial responsibility of an executive or an administration that has £30bn to spend but doesn't have any responsibility for raising [that].

"In any other devolved administration in the world, there is usually a financial responsibility that requires not only the spending of money by the administration but also its responsibility to take seriously how it raises money." (BBC News)

In the wake of last week's internal Labour squabbles, Brown has come out in support of Wendy Alexander, and dissociated himself from David Cairns' 'McChattering classes' comments.

However, his suggestion that Westminster could take some powers back from Holyrood will only increase concerns that Alexander's proposed constitutional commission is being downgraded into a review under tight control from Westminster.

Brown undermining Alexander on devolution

Its been an intriguing few days in Scottish politics.Not for the first time, it seems the Holyrood-Westminster divide in the Labour Party has cracked wide open.

A meeting on January 28 - attended by Brown, chancellor Alistair Darling, justice secretary Jack Straw, Scottish secretary Des Browne, and civil servant Jim Gallagher - was held to discuss the union and Scottish devolution.

The summit, of which the Sunday Herald has been given a full account by a UK government source, focused on [Labour Scottish Parliament leader Wendy] Alexander's commission plan.

The prime minister said he found the body's remit to be acceptable, but that he wanted the UK government, not Holyrood, to take the lead in setting it up. He also said he did not believe the word commission was appropriate; instead he favoured "working party" or "review". The Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath MP then said the government, rather than the Scottish parliament, should consult on membership of the review. (Sunday Herald, 10 February)