When Boris Johnson's Conservatives won an 81 seat majority last December, it looked as if we wouldn't have to worry about close parliamentary votes on Brexit anymore. Johnson may have begun to squander that advantage with the admission that the Internal Market Bill breaks international law.
Hufffpost's Arj Singh is reporting estimates of up to 40 Conservative rebels, theoretically enough to leave the Government relying on the DUP if they all vote against the legislation, though the reality is likely to be more prosaic:
One Tory predicts 20/30 voting against the government at second reading tonight and another 20 or so abstentions, but that feels high to me tbh (Arj Sing, via Twitter).
The bigger threat to the bill is likely to come with Sir Bob Neill's amendment next Monday. While the Government's majority is most likely to survive, a significant rebellion will strengthen opposition in the Lords, where the Constitution Unit's Meg Russell sees potential for a showdown:
Despite loud complaints from some newspapers, the Lords was very cautious over Brexit – understandably deferring both to MPs’ decisions and the 2016 referendum result. But that deference has its limits – one of which would almost certainly be proposals to endorse a breach of international law. Moreover, this move explicitly reneges on the Withdrawal Agreement which the Conservatives’ 2019 manifesto described as ‘a great new deal that is ready to go’ (Meg Russell, Constitution Unit).
While the Lords cannot block bills outright, its power of delay could be decisive given the time-sensitive nature of Brexit legislation.
Potential Tory rebels in the Commons
Theresa May: asked "how can the Government reassure future international partners the UK can be trusted to abide by the legal obligations of the agreements it signs" (Lizzy Buchan, The Mirror)
Geoffrey Cox: "Geoffrey Cox voting against the Internal Market Bill" (Patrick Maguire, The Times, via Twitter).
George Freeman: "I share the concerns of former @Conservatives PMs & Party leaders & senior (Brexiteer) lawyers & MPs that this is v damaging. I cannot vote for the Bill as it stands. I’m backing the #Neil Amendment. And talking to Ministers & No10 to urge the NIP measures withdrawn" (Twitter).
Sir Roger Gale: "Voting against this measure is a matter of principle not just for myself or this government, but for this Country" (Twitter).
Damian Green - tabling amendment.
Oliver Heald - tabling amendment.
Tobias Ellwood - warned the UK would "lose the moral high ground" if the government went through with the changes. (BBC).
Tom Tugendhat: "Our entire economy is based on the perception that people have of the UK's adherence to the rule of law" (BBC).
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